Economic Uncertainty Is Inevitable – Growth-Minded Marketing Wins Every Time
Recessions aren’t new. From the Great Depression to the global pandemic, economic storms have tested businesses time and again. And every time, the question resurfaces: Should we cut our marketing budget?
It’s a tempting reflex. After all, advertising is often viewed as a flexible expense, easy to trim when revenue tightens. But history, and the data, tell a very different story:
Pulling back on marketing during a downturn is one of the fastest ways to lose ground.
In fact, recessions often create the most fertile ground for brands willing to stay the course and invest smartly.
The Data Doesn’t Lie: Brands That Stay Visible Win Big
Decades of research reinforce one core truth: brands that maintain or increase advertising during downturns consistently outperform those who retreat.
- McGraw-Hill (1980s recession): B2B firms that kept or grew ad spend saw 275% more growth than those that cut back.
- Bain & Co. & McKinsey (2008 crisis): High-investment brands were labeled “winners” and “resilients” – outperforming competitors during and after the recession.
- Analytic Partners (recent study): 60% of brands that increased media spend during a recession saw stronger ROI. Paid ads led to a 17% jump in incremental sales.
Real-world proof:
- During the 1990-91 recession, Pizza Hut grew 61% and Taco Bell 40% by leaning into marketing.
- McDonald’s, which cut spend, saw sales fall 28%.
The takeaway: When your competitors go silent, your share of voice gets louder, and your market share grows.
Share of Voice = Share of Market
The principle of Excess Share of Voice (ESOV) is simple: when your share of voice exceeds your market share, growth tends to follow.
In recessions, many brands pull back, giving those who stay visible a powerful (and often cheaper) opportunity to dominate attention. Lower CPMs, less crowded ad space, and higher engagement make every marketing dollar work harder.
Recessions don’t suppress demand. They reshuffle who earns it.
Visibility Builds Trust When It’s Needed Most
When uncertainty rises, consumers crave stability. Staying visible signals confidence, reliability, and staying power.
- 86% of consumers feel better about brands that advertise during downturns (Harris Interactive/Yankelovich).
- These brands stay top-of-mind, retain existing customers, and acquire new ones while others fade away.
Consistency breeds trust. Visibility fuels loyalty.
Messaging That Resonates: Read the Room
Staying active doesn’t mean “business as usual.” Recession-era marketing must align with shifting consumer mindsets:
- Emphasize value: Show customers how to make smarter spending decisions.
- Lead with empathy: Acknowledge financial and emotional pressures.
- Highlight utility: Position your product as essential, practical, or a smart investment.
📌 Example: During the 2008 recession, General Mills reframed its messaging to focus on affordable home-cooked meals. The result? They outperformed their growth during boom times.
Loyalty: Your Most Powerful (and Profitable) Asset
During a slowdown, your best customers become even more valuable. Investing in loyalty pays off, especially through personalized, digital-first programs.
- Starbucks Rewards boasts over 27 million members, contributing to more than 50% of its revenue, even in economic downturns.
Loyalty program members:
- Spend more
- Are less price-sensitive
- Stay engaged longer
In a downturn, loyalty isn’t optional, it’s your growth engine.
The Lipstick Effect: Small Luxuries Still Sell
Even in recessions, people spend on affordable indulgences, small purchases that deliver emotional value without breaking the bank.
If your product offers comfort, joy, or emotional uplift at a reasonable price point, you may find surprising growth in unexpected categories.
Identify your “lipstick product.” Market it well. Watch it outperform.
Smart Brands Don’t Stall – They Accelerate
It’s natural to feel cautious during an economic dip. But history rewards the brands that think long-term, adapt, and stay aggressive.
- Reckitt Benckiser increased ad spend 25% during the 2008 crash. The result? 8% revenue growth and 14% profit growth while competitors shrank.
Their strategy was simple: See marketing as an investment, not an expense.
Brake Before the Turn. Accelerate Through It.
In racing, you don’t hit the brakes in the middle of the curve. You brake early, enter strategically, and accelerate out. The same is true for marketing through economic uncertainty.
If you have the foresight, and the right partners, this could be your greatest growth opportunity.
At Kymera, we help brands find opportunity in volatility.
If you’re ready to position your business for long-term growth while others go silent, let’s talk.